When China’s Food Runs Out

Forbes.com, February 2014

New state guidelines from China suggest the country will soon be producing less grain than it consumes, ending a long-standing pledge to be self-sufficient in its staple foods. It might not sound much. But a China without self-sufficiency will have major ramifications around the world.

Today’s Financial Times cites new guidelines from the State Council, the most significant decision-making body in China’s national government, which set out the country’s food policy for the years ahead. It notes that, for the first time, the country has set a grains output target well below domestic consumption rates. The guidelines suggest grain production will stabilise at around 550 million tonnes a year by 2020, which is lower than the 602 million tonnes that were harvested (and consumed domestically) last year – and presumably lower still than consumption demand will be at the end of this decade. The guidelines instead refer to an emphasis on “food safety and quality”. Meat, vegetables and fruit are being prioritised, which take less land and create more jobs, as well as reflecting changes in the typical Chinese diet.

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